FX FORGE
BASE
SYDTKYLONNYC
FED CHAIR POWELL: PATIENT APPROACH TO RATE CUTS WARRANTED AMID PERSISTENT SERVICES INFLATION
WATCHLIST
EUR/USD1.0853▲0.000%
AUD/USD0.6527▲0.000%
FX Rates
Spot · USD crosses
PairRateChg★EUR/USD1.0853▲0.000%☆USD/JPY151.24▲0.000%☆GBP/USD1.2705▲0.000%☆USD/CHF0.8962▲0.000%★AUD/USD0.6527▲0.000%☆USD/CAD1.3572▲0.000%☆USD/EUR0.9214▲0.000%☆USD/GBP0.7871▲0.000%☆USD/AUD1.5321▲0.000%☆USD/NZD1.6693▲0.000%☆USD/CNY7.24▲0.000%☆NZD/USD0.5991▲0.000%☆EUR/GBP0.8542▲0.000%☆EUR/JPY164.14▲0.000%☆GBP/JPY192.15▲0.000%☆AUD/JPY98.71▲0.000%
Implied Vol · ATM
Pair1M3MRegimeEUR/USD6.42%6.87%LowGBP/USD7.18%7.64%ModUSD/JPY8.92%9.14%HighAUD/USD9.81%10.24%HighUSD/CAD5.84%6.12%Low
Commodities
USD · Spot
Gold/oz
▲0.420%2312.40
Silver/oz
▼0.310%27.180
WTI Crude/bbl
▲0.870%82.450
Brent/bbl
▲0.640%86.120
Nat Gas/mmbtu
▼1.230%1.847
Copper/lb
▲0.180%4.512
Wheat/bu
▼0.560%548.25
Bitcoin/BTC
▲2.140%71,240
Palladium/oz
▼0.720%1021.50
Prediction Markets
Kalshi · Polymarket
US recession 2025
+0.831%
Kalshi
Fed cuts ≥2x by Dec
-3.168%
Polymarket
BTC > $100k 2025
+2.344%
Polymarket
UK rate cut May
+1.572%
Kalshi
RBA cut Aug 2025
-0.961%
Kalshi
EUR/USD > 1.10 Q3
+0.438%
Polymarket
Oil > $95 Q2 2025
-1.222%
Kalshi
Rate Probabilities
Fed · CME FedWatch
FED TARGET
4.25–4.50%
LAST MOVE
-25bps2024-12-18
MeetingHold−25−50+25
May 772%24%3%1%
Jun 1841%42%14%3%
Jul 3028%45%22%5%
Sep 1718%42%31%9%
RBA
Current4.35%
May hold88%
Aug cut61%
Yr-end3.85%
ECB
Current4.00%
Jun cut78%
Yr-end3.25%
BOE
Current5.25%
May cut72%
Yr-end4.50%
Bonds · Yields
%
US 2Y
+3.24.872%
US 5Y
+1.84.547%
US 10Y
-1.84.421%
US 30Y
-1.14.618%
DE 10Y
+2.42.312%
GB 10Y
+3.14.187%
JP 10Y
+4.20.812%
AU 10Y
+1.84.302%
IT 10Y
+2.73.891%
Yield Curve
2s10s-12.6 bps
2s30s7.1 bps
10s30s19.7 bps
Economic Calendar
This week
Apr 21
01:30AUAU NAB Business Confidence
prev 2est 3
4
Apr 22
14:30USUS CPI m/m
prev 0.4%est 0.3%
--
14:30USUS Core CPI y/y
prev 3.8%est 3.7%
--
Apr 23
12:00GBUK CPI y/y
prev 3.4%est 3.1%
--
13:30USUS Retail Sales m/m
prev -0.6%est 0.4%
--
Apr 24
01:30AUAU Unemployment Rate
prev 4.2%est 4.1%
--
Apr 25
13:30USUS PCE Price Index m/m
prev 0.3%est 0.3%
--
Apr 28
01:30AUAU CPI q/q
prev 0.6%est 0.8%
--
Apr 29
14:00USUS CB Consumer Confidence
prev 104.7est 103.5
--
Apr 30
13:30USUS GDP q/q (Advance)
prev 3.4%est 2.5%
--
May 01
14:30USUS Non-Farm Payrolls
prev 303Kest 240K
--
14:30USUS Unemployment Rate
prev 3.8%est 3.9%
--
May 07
01:30AURBA Rate Decision
prev 4.35%est 4.35%
--
19:00USFOMC Rate Decision
prev 5.50%est 5.50%
--
May 08
11:00GBBOE Rate Decision
prev 5.25%est 5.00%
--
12:45EUECB Rate Decision
prev 4.00%est 3.75%
--
Commentary · USD
AI Adapted
AI Adapted · USD
AUD/USD holding 0.6527 ahead of a big week. RBA on hold was widely expected but removal of the easing bias was the hawkish surprise — the statement notably more confident on inflation returning to band by mid-year. Markets quickly repriced: Aug cut probability back to 61% from 70%. Key watch: CPI Wednesday. A softer-than-expected print likely re-opens the cut conversation. A beat puts the RBA back in a "higher for longer" camp that AUD bulls will lean on. Technically, AUD/USD consolidating in tight 0.6490-0.6560 range. Break above 0.6560 opens a run toward 0.6620. Failure at support brings 0.6440 back into play. Iron ore holding $105/t providing a commodity floor. China PMI beat at 51.4 adds to the constructive backdrop. Watch AUD/JPY at 98.50 resistance — a clean break confirms broad AUD strength.